ONGC, SBI Life Insurance, Shriram Finance, Bajaj Auto, and State Bank Of India are the top gainers on NSE Nifty 5o index whereas the top laggards include LTIMindree, Asian Paints, Grasim, Tata Steel, and Axis Bank.

Commenting on the Dollar and Rupee Outlook Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas said that Indian Rupee declined by 0.05% today as on positive US Dollar and rising domestic inflation. India’s CPI rose 5.08% y-o-y in June 2024 versus 4.75% in May 2024. This trimmed rate cut expectations by the RBI in its August monetary policy. raised odds of a rate cut by the RBI. WPI Inflation rose 3.36% y-o-y in June versus 2.61% in May. However, it was lower than expectations of 3.50%. India’s IIP rose 5.9% y-o-y in May 2024 versus 5% in April 2024. US Dollar rose on safe haven demand amid political violence in the US.

Choudhary also added that we expect Rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on positive domestic markets and sustained FII inflows. Softness in crude oil prices may also support the Rupee. However, positive US Dollar on safe haven demand may cap sharp upside. Rising odds of a rate cut by Fed in September may limit sharp upside in the greenback. Traders may take cues from Empire State manufacturing index data from the US. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.30 to Rs 83.80.

Shares of Zomato Ltd. rose by as much as 4% on Monday (July 15), reaching a record high of Rs 232. The stock has experienced a remarkable run over the past 12 months since becoming profitable, surging by up to 185%.

The recent increase in the stock price followed the food delivery giant’s decision to raise its platform fee from Rs 5 to Rs 6. This new fee, which will apply in key markets such as Delhi and Bengaluru, is expected to have a mildly positive impact on Zomato’s profitability.

“We believe that Asian Paints is anticipated to deliver a subdued performance in Q1FY25, with mid-single-digit year-on-year volume growth affected by reduced labor availability due to the May 24 election, causing delays in painting projects. Despite industry challenges, Asian Paints is poised to emerge as a strong player. In a recent exchange filing, Asian Paints announced a 1% price increase across its portfolio effective from July 22, 2024. This move has positively impacted investor sentiment, which had been subdued amid heightened competitive pressures, including from the launch of Birla Opus Paints,” said Akriti Mehrotra, Research Analyst at StoxBox.

“The company’s ability to maintain margins within a healthy range is seen as reassuring. Looking ahead, while Q1FY25 is expected to be muted, future quarters are anticipated to show robust growth, driven by factors such as increased rural demand supported by government initiatives like ‘Housing for All’, favorable monsoon forecasts, upcoming festivals, and a resurgence in rural markets alongside rising consumer aspirations,” Mehrotra said.

Commenting on the June WPI Inflation numbers Dheer Shah, CFO, of BDR Pharmaceuticals said that June 2024’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) reflects a steady rise with an annual inflation rate of 3.36% compared to June 2023. Comparatively, May 2024 recorded a WPI inflation rate of 2.61%, indicating a steady progression in inflationary pressures. This increase is driven by higher prices in food articles, manufacture of food products, crude petroleum & natural gas, mineral oils, and other manufacturing sectors.

Shah also added that it’s shows a consistent upward trajectory, influenced by significant price hikes across various sectors including food articles, food products manufacturing, and energy commodities. This highlights the ongoing economic shifts, necessitating strategic actions to maintain market stability and affordability.

Shares of Tanla Platforms surged over 13% to Rs 1,080 in Monday’s intraday trade on the BSE following the company’s announcement of a commercial agreement with a global tech major. While the company did not disclose the tech major’s name, the agreement, executed through Wisely ATP, aims to combat scams on the tech major’s messaging platform by identifying fraudulent phone numbers.

Commenting on the gold and silver outlook Renisha Chainani, Head Research – Augmont – Gold For All said that Gold gained bullish momentum and surged above $2400 (Rs 73000) on broad-based USD weakness. A strong decline in US yields coincided with the US Dollar Index meeting extra downside pressure and plunging to five-week lows below the 104 zone. Due to softening inflation, traders are pricing an over 82% chance for a 25-basis point cut in September, up from last week’s chances of about 64%.

Chainani also added Technically Gold prices have given a bullish breakout of the triangular pattern and a weekly closing above it. This opens the door for extra gains towards the previous high of $2450 (Rs 75000) in the coming days if momentum builds on.

The share price of Bank of Maharashtra surged over 5% to reach an intra-day high of Rs 68.60 following the bank’s Q1FY25 financial results. The bank reported a significant year-on-year increase in net profit, rising to Rs 1293 crore from Rs 882 crore. Operating profit also saw a 4% quarter-on-quarter rise to Rs 2294 crore. Provisions increased marginally by 1% to Rs 950 crore compared to the previous quarter. The gross non-performing assets (NPA) ratio improved to 1.85% from 1.88% quarter-on-quarter, while the net NPA ratio remained stable at 0.20%.

HCL Technologies reported mixed numbers for Q1FY25 with YoY revenue as well as PAT growth while EBIT margin saw a 21 basis points jump YoY. Going ahead, management has retained its guidance for FY25. Management commentary suggests discretionary spending pressure and delayed decision-making remained but they also expect the growth to resume in 2Q across all verticals and markets except BFSI, said Religare Broking in a research report. “Further, HCL has developed Gen AI platforms such as AI Force and GenAI Enterprise Foundry to capitalize on GenAI-led demand and growth. On the financial front, we estimate its revenue/EBIT to grow by CAGR of 6.7%/9.4% over FY24-26E and we have revised our rating to “Accumulate” with the target price of Rs 1,759,” it said.

Shares of Godfrey Philips rose 18% to hit a fresh 52-week high of Rs 4,789.85. The upper band for the stock is placed at Rs 4,868.50 or 20% of the previous close. The company closed at a price of Rs 4,057.10 in its last trading session. The company’s 52-week low is Rs 1,620, which it touched on July 21, 2023.

LTI Mindtree’s revenue may see a marginal increase in Q1FY25 in constant currency terms. “We expect broad-based growth across verticals. The BFSI segment should recover due to the absence of project cancellations last quarter. We expect modest margin expansion with bench build-up, investments in sales, deal transition costs and visa costs consuming most of the incremental profitability,” said Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research at StoxBox. Furthermore, management commentary on the demand outlook for BFSI, indications of recovery in discretionary spending, merger synergies progress, elevated senior management attrition in recent quarters, and deal ramp-up visibility would be key things to watch out for, said Chowdhury.

Sensex was up 160 points supported by big stocks like NTPC, Ultratech Cements, SBI, Maruti Suzuki, and many others. While Asian Paints, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, and likewise were weighing on the index.

Courtesy: BSE

In terms of stock performance, HCL Tech shares have demonstrated positive returns across multiple time frames. Over the past month, the stock has given a commendable 12.23% return, showcasing its stability and growth potential. The last six months have seen even more impressive results, with a substantial increase of 1.50%, indicating a strong upward trend. 

Year-to-date, HCL Tech shares have surged by 8.61%, reinforcing the stock’s positive momentum in the current fiscal year. Looking at the broader picture, the stock has delivered an impressive return of over 39.71% in the last twelve months, emphasizing its sustained growth and attractiveness to investors.

The NSE Nifty 50 was up 87 points or 0.36% at 24,589, while the BSE Sensex was up 200 points or 0.25% at 80,720.

“With gradual recovery in consumer sentiments/demand trends especially in lower income cohort, one should see uptick in salience of discretionary categories to continue in coming quarters, which we believe will aid gross margins and also bring scale-efficiencies back into the business. Pace of store expansion and discretionary contribution to sales will be key monitorables. We continue to like DMart – businesses with such long growth runways are rare, any weakness in the name should be looked as an opportunity to add,” said JM Financial on Avenue Supermarts after the company released Q1 FY25 results.

Zomato shares climbed over 3% and reached an all-time high of Rs 232 on July 15. This surge came a day after the company announced an increase in its platform fee from Rs 5 to Rs 6. The revised fees, effective in specific markets across Delhi and Bengaluru, are anticipated to moderately boost the company’s profitability.

“Comex Gold has slipped 0.3% and is currently trading near $2415/oz, following an assassination attempt on Donald Trump that has raised prospects of his winning the US presidential election. Last week, Comex Gold prices surpassed $2400/oz and surged to $2430/oz as signs of weakness in the labor market and ongoing disinflationary trends bolstered expectations that the Fed might soon pivot to rate cuts. This move sent 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields to their lowest levels since March. Currently, markets are anticipating US retail sales figures for June, which Bloomberg forecasts to decline by 0.3% month-over-month, indicating another month of sluggish spending. If the data meets expectations, it could support gold prices, as markets are already nearly certain of a September rate cut. However, a negative surprise may cause traders to trim their expectations for rate cuts,” said Kaynat Chainwala, Assistant Vice President of Commodity Research at Kotak Securities.

Commenting on the Bank Nifty levels Kuna Kamble, Sr. Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio said that Throughout the entire week, Bank Nifty has been the weaker performer. The Index has displayed a formation of Lower High and Lower Low, indicating potential upcoming weakness. Once the Index manages to close above 52850, there might be an increase in buying interest.

Kamble also added that if the Index closes below 51850, it could lead to a movement towards levels ranging from 51500 to 51250. In terms of options, significant activity is observed at 52500CE and 52400CE levels, which are likely to act as resistance. Conversely, 52000 and 51900 on the PE side could potentially act as support given the majority of activity there.

Nifty 50 opened on a higher note on July 15. NTPC, HCLTech, TCS, and ITC among others are contributing. While heavyweights like Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, and Asian Paints are trying their best to drag the markets lower.

Courtesy: NSE

HCLTech, Bajaj Auto, ONGC, Ultratech Cement, and Shriram Finance were the top gainers in the Nifty 50. While Grasim Industries, Asian Paints, LTIMindtree, Tata Steel, and Axis Bank were the major losers in the Nifty 50 on July 15.

The NSE Nifty 50 opened 0.32% higher at 24,581.30, while the BSE Sensex opened 0.21% higher at 80,687.28.

“The global support for the market rally in India continues. It is important to understand that the US is leading this rally with 18.4% returns YTD in S&P 500 compared with 12.7% YTD returns in Nifty. The latest inflation data in the US indicates a rate cut by the Fed in September. This is likely to keep the US market buoyant with positive impact in India, too. However, valuations in India are moving to elevated levels. Investors have to be cautious about the excessive valuations in the momentum stocks which are moving to frothy levels,” said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

“IT results from TCS and HCL Tech indicate improving prospects which the market is discounting now. But the growth projections of IT companies remain low and, therefore, a sharp restart from the present levels is unlikely. Financials remain the fairly valued segment of the market. Decline in US 10-year bond yield is positive for FII inflows.”

On Wednesday, July 17, the stock markets will be closed in observance of Muharram. “Key catalysts for the day include the release of WPI inflation numbers and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on July 15. The FOMO rally remains strong, with India projected to become the world’s second-largest economy by 2031, the Dow Jones surpassing 40,000, and a 93% chance of a Fed rate cut in September. FIIs were net buyers of Rs. 3,844 crores last week,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior Vice President of Research at Mehta Equities.

Piramal Pharma has said that the USFDA conducted a Pre-Approval Inspection (PAI) of the company’s PPDS Ahmedabad facility from 10th July 2024 to 12th July 2024. The inspection was completed successfully with Zero Form-483 observations and No Action Indicated (NAI) designation.

On Friday, Bank Nifty opened flat but gained acceleration in the first half. However, it erased most gains in the second half, settling at 52,279 levels. “Technically, on a daily scale, the index formed a doji candle near the 21-days EMA support. As long as the index holds above 51,750, a buy-on-dips strategy should be adopted in Bank Nifty. On the upside, 52,800 and 53,000 will serve as strong resistance levels,” said Hrishikesh Yedve, Assistant Vice President of Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates.

Rail Vikas Nigam received a letter of acceptance (LoA) from Central Railway for overhead modification work up-gradation of the existing 1 x 25 kV electric traction system for a sum of Rs 132.59 crore.

“We expect stock-specific moves to gain traction due to the ongoing earnings season; indeed, IT will be in the limelight due to the good start to the earnings and outlook. The good progress in the monsoon and expectations of an uptick in volumes aided FMCG stocks to outperform the main indices. In the week ahead, economic data like China GDP, EuroZone CPI inflation, ECB policy, and the US Fed chair speech will be watched carefully by investors to get cues on market momentum,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) posted a net profit of Rs 383.69 crore in the Apr-Jun quarter of FY25, a 30% growth on year compared to Rs 294.58 crore during the same period last year. Also, the company’s asset quality has improved sequentially.